"RJ Turnbull" (rodrant64)
02/10/2014 at 04:34 • Filed to: NASCAR, Justin Allgaier, Sprint Cup Series
2
0|
"RJ Turnbull" (rodrant64)
02/10/2014 at 04:34 • Filed to: NASCAR, Justin Allgaier, Sprint Cup Series | 2
| 0 |
Who is he?
Justin Allgaier, 27 year old from Riverton, Illinois, is both the oldest and most experienced rookie among the 2014 Sprint Cup Series field, with 174 starts in the Nationwide Series and 86 in the ARCA Racing Series. He made his first career ARCA start at the age of 16 in 2002, and ran for his family team, Allgaier Motorsports, until becoming a Penske Racing developmental driver and racing for them in 2009 and 2010 in NNS. Allgaier'sdriven for Turner Scott Motorsports in NNS since 2011, and will drive for TSM co-owner Harry Scott's HScott Motorsports (formerly Phoenix Racing) in the #51 for 2014 in Cup.
What has he accomplished?
Allgaier's the one who ended Frank Kimmel's run of 8 consecutive ARCA championships in 2008, and compiled 8 wins and 31 top 5's in his 86 starts there (14.0 average finish). He's the first ARCA champion to compete full time in the Cup Series since Benny Parsons, who won back-to-back championships in 1968 and 1969 then began his full time Cup career in 1970.
Winner of ROTY in 2009, in 174 NNS starts Allgaier has 3 wins, 29 top 5's and 84 top 10's with a 12.9 avg fin to finish top 6 in points in all 5 of his full seasons in the series (with a best of 3rd in 2011). His 3 wins are the most among all of this year's Cup rookies, and his top 10's rank T-4th overall and 1st amongst NNS drivers from 2009-13.
What are his ROTY chances?
Not that great. I won't completely murder his chances, because last year's #51 team wasn't a bad team for periods of time in 2013 (they were 15th in the owners standings through 12 races but ended up 30th). For 2014 they appear to be completely overhauled with new ownership in Scott, an expanded relation with Hendrick Motorsports, 21 races of sponsorship from Brandt (who's moved up from NNS with Allgaier to extend their relationship to 4 seasons), and the addition of Steve Addington as both crew chief (20 wins between 3 different drivers and teams since 2008) and competition director.
But it'll still be tough for them to compete against Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson who'll be driving for established winning multi-car organizations. And even though Allgaier's the elder statesman of the rookie class, I'm pessimistic of his chances of keeping the #51 out of the wall often enough. His first 4 Cup starts last year in the #51 didn't stand out in any way, negative or positive (30.2 avg fin with a best of 24th for a team that had fallen off quite a bit amidst the internal changes), yet....
What are his long term chances?
...What hurts his 2014 chances as much as his long term chances is that "Little Gator" has a bad tendency of racing like a dick. Be it blocking, nearly or actually running someone up into the wall or just putting his fender in the wrong place here and there, Allgaier can be a very reckless driver. And that has the potential to hurt him big time at the top level where you can make enemies, wreck cars and burn bridges over 400-500 mile races in a hurry.
He's certainly got the ability to go fast. The overall numbers speak of themselves, and he's been able to pick up wins (FYI: 2 of his 3 NNS wins were by last-lap passes where it was the only lap he led) in NNS where wins by series regulars have been very hard to come by. As the oldest in the group, there's the concern that his ceiling's going to be shorter than the younger and less experienced rookies around him who might already be as good if not better than he is. If this Allgaier's the finished product, then it's going to be tough for him to stay in Cup for the long haul. If he's still got the potential to smarten up his racing IQ and learn both some respect and patience then that might be all he needs to become a successful Cup driver.